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Karnobat vs Yambol 1915 — Third League - Southeast 2018

Karnobat
Karnobat
FT
3 – 0
Yambol 1915
Yambol 1915
4/16/2022Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · South-East - 27Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 117+ matches

Karnobat35%
×Draw25%
Yambol 191540%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Karnobat
1.40
Yambol 1915
1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 117 home / 118 away

creates per match

Karnobat
1.13
Yambol 1915
1.08

allows per match

Karnobat
1.91
Yambol 1915
1.66

finishing

Karnobat+0.00on par
Yambol 1915+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karnobat ↓

Yambol 1915 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Karnobat or draw
60%
Karnobat or Yambol 1915
75%
Draw or Yambol 1915
65%

Winning margin

Karnobat wins by 2+
16%
Yambol 1915 wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Karnobat 1+ goals
75%
Karnobat 2+ goals
41%
Karnobat 3+ goals
17%
Yambol 1915 1+ goals
78%
Yambol 1915 2+ goals
44%
Yambol 1915 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Karnobat (draw refunded)
47%
Yambol 1915 (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karnobat at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.91 · 117 matches

Yambol 1915 away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.66 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karnobat attack 1.13 + Yambol 1915 defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.40

Yambol 1915 attack 1.08 + Karnobat defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Karnobat scores more
35%
level
25%
Yambol 1915 scores more
40%

Yambol 1915 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Yambol 1915 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southeast: Karnobat 3–0 Yambol 1915

Karnobat beat Yambol 1915 3-0 in Third League - Southeast on April 16, 2022.

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Karnobat.