Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Karnobat vs Rodopa Smolyan — Third League - Southeast 2018

Karnobat
Karnobat
FT
1 – 5
Rodopa Smolyan
Rodopa Smolyan
11/12/2022Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Southeast - 17Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 117+ matches

Karnobat39%
×Draw24%
Rodopa Smolyan37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Karnobat
1.55
Rodopa Smolyan
1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 117 home / 120 away

creates per match

Karnobat
1.13
Rodopa Smolyan
1.14

allows per match

Karnobat
1.91
Rodopa Smolyan
1.97

finishing

Karnobat+0.00on par
Rodopa Smolyan+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karnobat ↓

Rodopa Smolyan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Karnobat or draw
63%
Karnobat or Rodopa Smolyan
76%
Draw or Rodopa Smolyan
61%

Winning margin

Karnobat wins by 2+
19%
Rodopa Smolyan wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Karnobat 1+ goals
79%
Karnobat 2+ goals
46%
Karnobat 3+ goals
20%
Rodopa Smolyan 1+ goals
78%
Rodopa Smolyan 2+ goals
45%
Rodopa Smolyan 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Karnobat (draw refunded)
51%
Rodopa Smolyan (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karnobat at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.91 · 117 matches

Rodopa Smolyan away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.97 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karnobat attack 1.13 + Rodopa Smolyan defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.55

Rodopa Smolyan attack 1.14 + Karnobat defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Karnobat scores more
39%
level
24%
Rodopa Smolyan scores more
37%

Karnobat at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Karnobat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Karnobat vs Rodopa Smolyan

Rodopa Smolyan beat Karnobat 5-1 in Third League - Southeast on November 12, 2022.

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Karnobat.