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Karnobat vs Botev Plovdiv II — Third League - Southeast 2018

Karnobat
Karnobat
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Botev Plovdiv II
Botev Plovdiv II
9/10/2023Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Southeast - 6Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Karnobat27%
×Draw24%
Botev Plovdiv II49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Karnobat
1.19
Botev Plovdiv II
1.69

Botev Plovdiv II creates 42% more chances

Season form · 117 home / 19 away

creates per match

Karnobat
1.13
Botev Plovdiv II
1.47

allows per match

Karnobat
1.91
Botev Plovdiv II
1.26

finishing

Karnobat+0.00on par
Botev Plovdiv II+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karnobat ↓

Botev Plovdiv II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Karnobat or draw
51%
Karnobat or Botev Plovdiv II
76%
Draw or Botev Plovdiv II
73%

Winning margin

Karnobat wins by 2+
11%
Botev Plovdiv II wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Karnobat 1+ goals
70%
Karnobat 2+ goals
33%
Karnobat 3+ goals
12%
Botev Plovdiv II 1+ goals
82%
Botev Plovdiv II 2+ goals
50%
Botev Plovdiv II 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Karnobat (draw refunded)
35%
Botev Plovdiv II (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karnobat at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.91 · 117 matches

Botev Plovdiv II away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.26 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karnobat attack 1.13 + Botev Plovdiv II defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.19

Botev Plovdiv II attack 1.47 + Karnobat defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Karnobat scores more
27%
level
24%
Botev Plovdiv II scores more
49%

Botev Plovdiv II at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Botev Plovdiv II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Karnobat vs Botev Plovdiv II

Karnobat beat Botev Plovdiv II 2-1 in Third League - Southeast on September 10, 2023.

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Karnobat.