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Karnobat vs Beroe II — Third League - Southeast 2018

Karnobat
Karnobat
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Beroe II
Beroe II
10/22/2022Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Southeast - 13Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Karnobat52%
×Draw22%
Beroe II26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Karnobat
1.95
Beroe II
1.33

Karnobat creates 47% more chances

Season form · 117 home / 55 away

creates per match

Karnobat
1.13
Beroe II
0.76

allows per match

Karnobat
1.91
Beroe II
2.78

finishing

Karnobat+0.00on par
Beroe II+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karnobat ↓

Beroe II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Karnobat or draw
74%
Karnobat or Beroe II
78%
Draw or Beroe II
48%

Winning margin

Karnobat wins by 2+
30%
Beroe II wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Karnobat 1+ goals
86%
Karnobat 2+ goals
58%
Karnobat 3+ goals
31%
Beroe II 1+ goals
74%
Beroe II 2+ goals
38%
Beroe II 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Karnobat (draw refunded)
66%
Beroe II (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karnobat at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.91 · 117 matches

Beroe II away — creates 0.76, concedes 2.78 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karnobat attack 1.13 + Beroe II defence 2.78 → ÷2 → 1.95

Beroe II attack 0.76 + Karnobat defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Karnobat scores more
52%
level
22%
Beroe II scores more
26%

Karnobat at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Karnobat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Karnobat vs Beroe II

Beroe II beat Karnobat 2-0 in Third League - Southeast on October 22, 2022.

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Karnobat.