Karmiotissa 3–3 Omonia Nicosia: Result & Stats

Karmiotissa

FT

3 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Omonia Nicosia

8/26/2023

1. Division · Round 2Stadio Stelios Kyriakides

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Karmiotissa26%

×Draw24%

Omonia Nicosia50%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KarmiotissaExpected goals in this matchOmonia Nicosia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

1.65

Karmiotissa

1.11

Omonia Nicosia

1.65

Omonia Nicosia creates 49% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 118 away

1.13

creates per match

1.57

1.73

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Karmiotissa

1.13

Omonia Nicosia

1.57

allows per match

Karmiotissa

1.73

Omonia Nicosia

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Karmiotissa+0.00on par

Omonia Nicosia+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karmiotissa ↓

Omonia Nicosia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Karmiotissa or draw

50%

Karmiotissa or Omonia Nicosia

76%

Draw or Omonia Nicosia

74%

Winning margin

Karmiotissa wins by 2+

10%

Omonia Nicosia wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Karmiotissa 1+ goals

67%

Karmiotissa 2+ goals

30%

Karmiotissa 3+ goals

10%

Omonia Nicosia 1+ goals

81%

Omonia Nicosia 2+ goals

49%

Omonia Nicosia 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Karmiotissa (draw refunded)

34%

Omonia Nicosia (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karmiotissa at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.73 · 77 matches

Omonia Nicosia away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.10 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karmiotissa attack 1.13 + Omonia Nicosia defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.11

Omonia Nicosia attack 1.57 + Karmiotissa defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Karmiotissa scores more

26%

level

24%

Omonia Nicosia scores more

50%

Omonia Nicosia at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Omonia Nicosia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff