Karmiotissa 3–1 Doxa: Result & Stats | 1. Division

Karmiotissa

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Doxa

2/15/2024

1. Division · Round 25Stadio Stelios Kyriakides

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Karmiotissa37%

×Draw26%

Doxa37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KarmiotissaExpected goals in this matchDoxa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.32

Karmiotissa

1.33

Doxa

1.32

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 77 home / 87 away

1.13

creates per match

0.92

1.73

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Karmiotissa

1.13

Doxa

0.92

allows per match

Karmiotissa

1.73

Doxa

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Karmiotissa+0.00on par

Doxa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karmiotissa ↓

Doxa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Karmiotissa or draw

63%

Karmiotissa or Doxa

74%

Draw or Doxa

63%

Winning margin

Karmiotissa wins by 2+

17%

Doxa wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Karmiotissa 1+ goals

74%

Karmiotissa 2+ goals

38%

Karmiotissa 3+ goals

15%

Doxa 1+ goals

73%

Doxa 2+ goals

38%

Doxa 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Karmiotissa (draw refunded)

50%

Doxa (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karmiotissa at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.73 · 77 matches

Doxa away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.54 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karmiotissa attack 1.13 + Doxa defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.33

Doxa attack 0.92 + Karmiotissa defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Karmiotissa scores more

37%

level

26%

Doxa scores more

37%

Karmiotissa at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Karmiotissa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff