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Karlsruher SC vs TSV Steinbach — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Karlsruher SC
Karlsruher SC
FT
4 – 2
HT: 3 – 1
TSV Steinbach
TSV Steinbach
2/1/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Karlsruher SC46%
×Draw21%
TSV Steinbach33%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Karlsruher SC
2.10
TSV Steinbach
1.77

Karlsruher SC creates 19% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 12 away

creates per match

Karlsruher SC
2.54
TSV Steinbach
2.00

allows per match

Karlsruher SC
1.54
TSV Steinbach
1.67

finishing

Karlsruher SC+0.00on par
TSV Steinbach+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karlsruher SC ↓

TSV Steinbach →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Karlsruher SC or draw
67%
Karlsruher SC or TSV Steinbach
79%
Draw or TSV Steinbach
54%

Winning margin

Karlsruher SC wins by 2+
26%
TSV Steinbach wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Karlsruher SC 1+ goals
88%
Karlsruher SC 2+ goals
62%
Karlsruher SC 3+ goals
35%
TSV Steinbach 1+ goals
83%
TSV Steinbach 2+ goals
53%
TSV Steinbach 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Karlsruher SC (draw refunded)
58%
TSV Steinbach (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karlsruher SC at home — creates 2.54, concedes 1.54 · 13 matches

TSV Steinbach away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.67 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karlsruher SC attack 2.54 + TSV Steinbach defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.10

TSV Steinbach attack 2.00 + Karlsruher SC defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Karlsruher SC scores more
46%
level
21%
TSV Steinbach scores more
33%

Karlsruher SC at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Karlsruher SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Karlsruher
TSV
Christian Eichner
Manager: Christian Eichner
H. Tahiri
Manager: H. Tahiri

Match Recap: Karlsruher SC vs TSV Steinbach

Karlsruher SC beat TSV Steinbach 4-2 in Friendlies Clubs on February 1, 2026.