Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Karlsruher SC vs Preußen Münster — 2. Bundesliga 2018

Karlsruher SC
Karlsruher SC
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Preußen Münster
Preußen Münster
11/10/20242. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 12BBBank Wildpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Karlsruher SC49%
×Draw23%
Preußen Münster28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Karlsruher SC
1.79
Preußen Münster
1.30

Karlsruher SC creates 38% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 34 away

creates per match

Karlsruher SC
1.80
Preußen Münster
1.15

allows per match

Karlsruher SC
1.45
Preußen Münster
1.79

finishing

Karlsruher SC+0.00on par
Preußen Münster+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karlsruher SC ↓

Preußen Münster →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Karlsruher SC or draw
72%
Karlsruher SC or Preußen Münster
77%
Draw or Preußen Münster
51%

Winning margin

Karlsruher SC wins by 2+
27%
Preußen Münster wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Karlsruher SC 1+ goals
83%
Karlsruher SC 2+ goals
53%
Karlsruher SC 3+ goals
26%
Preußen Münster 1+ goals
73%
Preußen Münster 2+ goals
37%
Preußen Münster 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Karlsruher SC (draw refunded)
64%
Preußen Münster (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karlsruher SC at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.45 · 119 matches

Preußen Münster away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.79 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karlsruher SC attack 1.80 + Preußen Münster defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.79

Preußen Münster attack 1.15 + Karlsruher SC defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Karlsruher SC scores more
49%
level
23%
Preußen Münster scores more
28%

Karlsruher SC at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Karlsruher SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2. Bundesliga: Karlsruher SC 1–1 Preußen Münster

Karlsruher SC and Preußen Münster drew 1-1 in 2. Bundesliga on November 10, 2024.

The match was played at BBBank Wildpark in Karlsruhe.