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Karlsruher SC vs Hansa Rostock — 2. Bundesliga 2018

Karlsruher SC
Karlsruher SC
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Hansa Rostock
Hansa Rostock
8/27/20222. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 6BBBank Wildpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Karlsruher SC49%
×Draw24%
Hansa Rostock27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Karlsruher SC
1.69
Hansa Rostock
1.19

Karlsruher SC creates 42% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 51 away

creates per match

Karlsruher SC
1.80
Hansa Rostock
0.94

allows per match

Karlsruher SC
1.45
Hansa Rostock
1.57

finishing

Karlsruher SC+0.00on par
Hansa Rostock+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karlsruher SC ↓

Hansa Rostock →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Karlsruher SC or draw
73%
Karlsruher SC or Hansa Rostock
76%
Draw or Hansa Rostock
51%

Winning margin

Karlsruher SC wins by 2+
26%
Hansa Rostock wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Karlsruher SC 1+ goals
82%
Karlsruher SC 2+ goals
50%
Karlsruher SC 3+ goals
24%
Hansa Rostock 1+ goals
70%
Hansa Rostock 2+ goals
33%
Hansa Rostock 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Karlsruher SC (draw refunded)
65%
Hansa Rostock (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karlsruher SC at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.45 · 119 matches

Hansa Rostock away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.57 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karlsruher SC attack 1.80 + Hansa Rostock defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.69

Hansa Rostock attack 0.94 + Karlsruher SC defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Karlsruher SC scores more
49%
level
24%
Hansa Rostock scores more
27%

Karlsruher SC at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Karlsruher SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Karlsruher SC vs Hansa Rostock

Karlsruher SC beat Hansa Rostock 2-0 in 2. Bundesliga on August 27, 2022.

The match was played at BBBank Wildpark in Karlsruhe.