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Karlsruher SC vs Fortuna Düsseldorf — 2. Bundesliga 2018

Karlsruher SC
Karlsruher SC
FT
2 – 3
HT: 2 – 0
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Fortuna Düsseldorf
1/25/20252. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 19BBBank Wildpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

Karlsruher SC42%
×Draw24%
Fortuna Düsseldorf34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Karlsruher SC
1.59
Fortuna Düsseldorf
1.42

Karlsruher SC creates 12% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 102 away

creates per match

Karlsruher SC
1.80
Fortuna Düsseldorf
1.38

allows per match

Karlsruher SC
1.45
Fortuna Düsseldorf
1.39

finishing

Karlsruher SC+0.00on par
Fortuna Düsseldorf+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karlsruher SC ↓

Fortuna Düsseldorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Karlsruher SC or draw
66%
Karlsruher SC or Fortuna Düsseldorf
76%
Draw or Fortuna Düsseldorf
58%

Winning margin

Karlsruher SC wins by 2+
21%
Fortuna Düsseldorf wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Karlsruher SC 1+ goals
80%
Karlsruher SC 2+ goals
47%
Karlsruher SC 3+ goals
21%
Fortuna Düsseldorf 1+ goals
76%
Fortuna Düsseldorf 2+ goals
41%
Fortuna Düsseldorf 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Karlsruher SC (draw refunded)
55%
Fortuna Düsseldorf (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karlsruher SC at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.45 · 119 matches

Fortuna Düsseldorf away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.39 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karlsruher SC attack 1.80 + Fortuna Düsseldorf defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.59

Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.38 + Karlsruher SC defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Karlsruher SC scores more
42%
level
24%
Fortuna Düsseldorf scores more
34%

Karlsruher SC at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Karlsruher SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Karlsruher SC vs Fortuna Düsseldorf

Fortuna Düsseldorf beat Karlsruher SC 3-2 in 2. Bundesliga on January 25, 2025.

The match was played at BBBank Wildpark in Karlsruhe.