Karlsruher SC 2–2 FC Wurzburger Kickers

Karlsruher SC

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

FC Wurzburger Kickers

D. Kother 45+1'

Choi Kyoung-Rok 26'

L. Dietz 90+3'

M. Pieringer 36'

4/23/2021

2. Bundesliga · Round 31Wildparkstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Karlsruher SC52%

×Draw23%

FC Wurzburger Kickers25%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Karlsruher SCExpected goals in this matchFC Wurzburger Kickers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

1.20

Karlsruher SC

1.83

FC Wurzburger Kickers

1.20

Karlsruher SC creates 53% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 21 away

1.80

creates per match

0.95

1.45

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Karlsruher SC

1.80

FC Wurzburger Kickers

0.95

allows per match

Karlsruher SC

1.45

FC Wurzburger Kickers

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Karlsruher SC+0.00on par

FC Wurzburger Kickers+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karlsruher SC ↓

FC Wurzburger Kickers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Karlsruher SC or draw

75%

Karlsruher SC or FC Wurzburger Kickers

77%

Draw or FC Wurzburger Kickers

48%

Winning margin

Karlsruher SC wins by 2+

29%

FC Wurzburger Kickers wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Karlsruher SC 1+ goals

84%

Karlsruher SC 2+ goals

54%

Karlsruher SC 3+ goals

28%

FC Wurzburger Kickers 1+ goals

70%

FC Wurzburger Kickers 2+ goals

34%

FC Wurzburger Kickers 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Karlsruher SC (draw refunded)

68%

FC Wurzburger Kickers (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karlsruher SC at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.45 · 119 matches

FC Wurzburger Kickers away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.86 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karlsruher SC attack 1.80 + FC Wurzburger Kickers defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.83

FC Wurzburger Kickers attack 0.95 + Karlsruher SC defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Karlsruher SC scores more

52%

level

23%

FC Wurzburger Kickers scores more

25%

Karlsruher SC at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Karlsruher SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

M. Pieringer

FC Wurzburger Kickers · F

7.7

Match Events

26'

Choi Kyoung-Rok↳ P. Heise

36'

M. Pieringer↳ R. Feltscher

45+1'

D. Kother

60'

M. Hasek← D. Meisel

60'

F. Ronstadt← A. Feick

65'

M. Lorenz← D. Kother

65'

B. Goller← Choi Kyoung-Rok

70'

M. Lotrič← D. Hägele

71'

V. Nikolov← D. Kopacz

73'

J. Rabold← P. Heise

73'

A. Groiß← T. Breithaupt

80'

C. David← P. Sontheimer

89'

M. Batmaz← P. Hofmann

90+3'

L. Dietz

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

KarlsruherFC

Overview

50%Possession50%

13Total Shots9

3Corners2

8Fouls14

Shots

13Total Shots9

4On Target3

7Off Target5

2Blocked1

9Inside Box7

4Outside Box2

Passing

50%Possession50%

462Total Passes462

360Accurate Passes340

78%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

8Fouls14

1Offsides1