Karlsruher SC 2–1 FC Schalke 04: Result & Stats

Karlsruher SC

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

FC Schalke 04

F. Schleusener 90'

M. Beifus 76'

K. Karaman 66' (pen)

11/1/2025

2. Bundesliga · Round 11BBBank Wildpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Karlsruher SC29%

×Draw23%

FC Schalke 0448%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Karlsruher SCExpected goals in this matchFC Schalke 04

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.79

Karlsruher SC

1.35

FC Schalke 04

1.79

FC Schalke 04 creates 33% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 9 away

1.67

creates per match

1.66

1.92

allows per match

1.03

creates per match

Karlsruher SC

1.67

FC Schalke 04

1.66

allows per match

Karlsruher SC

1.92

FC Schalke 04

1.03

+0.33scores more than expected

finishing

-0.44scores less than expected

finishing

Karlsruher SC+0.33scores more

FC Schalke 04-0.44scores less

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karlsruher SC ↓

FC Schalke 04 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Karlsruher SC or draw

52%

Karlsruher SC or FC Schalke 04

77%

Draw or FC Schalke 04

71%

Winning margin

Karlsruher SC wins by 2+

13%

FC Schalke 04 wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Karlsruher SC 1+ goals

74%

Karlsruher SC 2+ goals

39%

Karlsruher SC 3+ goals

15%

FC Schalke 04 1+ goals

83%

FC Schalke 04 2+ goals

53%

FC Schalke 04 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Karlsruher SC (draw refunded)

38%

FC Schalke 04 (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karlsruher SC at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.92 · 12 matches

FC Schalke 04 away — creates 1.66, concedes 1.03 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karlsruher SC attack 1.67 + FC Schalke 04 defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.35

FC Schalke 04 attack 1.66 + Karlsruher SC defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Karlsruher SC scores more

29%

level

23%

FC Schalke 04 scores more

48%

FC Schalke 04 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "FC Schalke 04 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

M. Beifus

Karlsruher SC · D

7.9

Match Events

1'

25'

40'

45+3'

46'

46'

64'

66'

66'

K. KaramanPenalty

72'

P. Remmert← A. Gantenbein

73'

76'

76'

84'

84'

85'

87'

90+4'

P. Scholl← F. Schleusener

90+4'

M. Wallentowitz←

90'

F. Schleusener

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

KarlsruherFC

Overview

65%Possession35%

8Total Shots11

0.70Expected Goals (xG)1.75

2Corners7

13Fouls15

Shots

8Total Shots11

3On Target4

1Off Target5

4Blocked2

7Inside Box9

1Outside Box2

Passing

65%Possession35%

446Total Passes233

344Accurate Passes155

77%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

13Fouls15

4Yellow Cards5

6Offsides1