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Karlsruher SC vs FC Nurnberg — 2. Bundesliga 2018

Karlsruher SC
Karlsruher SC
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
FC Nurnberg
FC Nurnberg
11/26/20232. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 14BBBank Wildpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 119+ matches

Karlsruher SC46%
×Draw23%
FC Nurnberg31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Karlsruher SC
1.79
FC Nurnberg
1.42

Karlsruher SC creates 26% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 121 away

creates per match

Karlsruher SC
1.80
FC Nurnberg
1.38

allows per match

Karlsruher SC
1.45
FC Nurnberg
1.79

finishing

Karlsruher SC+0.00on par
FC Nurnberg+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karlsruher SC ↓

FC Nurnberg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Karlsruher SC or draw
69%
Karlsruher SC or FC Nurnberg
77%
Draw or FC Nurnberg
54%

Winning margin

Karlsruher SC wins by 2+
25%
FC Nurnberg wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Karlsruher SC 1+ goals
83%
Karlsruher SC 2+ goals
53%
Karlsruher SC 3+ goals
26%
FC Nurnberg 1+ goals
76%
FC Nurnberg 2+ goals
41%
FC Nurnberg 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Karlsruher SC (draw refunded)
60%
FC Nurnberg (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karlsruher SC at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.45 · 119 matches

FC Nurnberg away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.79 · 121 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karlsruher SC attack 1.80 + FC Nurnberg defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.79

FC Nurnberg attack 1.38 + Karlsruher SC defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Karlsruher SC scores more
46%
level
23%
FC Nurnberg scores more
31%

Karlsruher SC at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Karlsruher SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2. Bundesliga: Karlsruher SC 4–1 FC Nurnberg

Karlsruher SC beat FC Nurnberg 4-1 in 2. Bundesliga on November 26, 2023.

The match was played at BBBank Wildpark in Karlsruhe.