FC Nurnberg 0–1 Karlsruher SC: Result & Stats

FC Nurnberg

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Karlsruher SC

4/28/2024

2. Bundesliga · Round 31Max-Morlock-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 119+ matches

FC Nurnberg41%

×Draw25%

Karlsruher SC35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC NurnbergExpected goals in this matchKarlsruher SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

1.40

FC Nurnberg

1.53

Karlsruher SC

1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 121 home / 119 away

1.35

creates per match

1.43

1.38

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

FC Nurnberg

1.35

Karlsruher SC

1.43

allows per match

FC Nurnberg

1.38

Karlsruher SC

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Nurnberg+0.00on par

Karlsruher SC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Nurnberg ↓

Karlsruher SC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

FC Nurnberg or draw

65%

FC Nurnberg or Karlsruher SC

75%

Draw or Karlsruher SC

59%

Winning margin

FC Nurnberg wins by 2+

20%

Karlsruher SC wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

FC Nurnberg 1+ goals

78%

FC Nurnberg 2+ goals

45%

FC Nurnberg 3+ goals

20%

Karlsruher SC 1+ goals

75%

Karlsruher SC 2+ goals

41%

Karlsruher SC 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

FC Nurnberg (draw refunded)

54%

Karlsruher SC (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Nurnberg at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.38 · 121 matches

Karlsruher SC away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.71 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Nurnberg attack 1.35 + Karlsruher SC defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.53

Karlsruher SC attack 1.43 + FC Nurnberg defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

FC Nurnberg scores more

41%

level

25%

Karlsruher SC scores more

35%

FC Nurnberg at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "FC Nurnberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff