Karlsruher SC 2–2 FC Ingolstadt 04: Result & Stats

Karlsruher SC

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

FC Ingolstadt 04

P. Hofmann 75'

F. Schleusener 69'

F. Bilbija 46'

P. Schmidt 24' (pen)

4/22/2022

2. Bundesliga · Round 31BBBank Wildpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Karlsruher SC44%

×Draw25%

FC Ingolstadt 0432%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Karlsruher SCExpected goals in this matchFC Ingolstadt 04

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.29

Karlsruher SC

1.56

FC Ingolstadt 04

1.29

Karlsruher SC creates 21% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 59 away

1.77

creates per match

1.12

1.46

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Karlsruher SC

1.77

FC Ingolstadt 04

1.12

allows per match

Karlsruher SC

1.46

FC Ingolstadt 04

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Karlsruher SC+0.00on par

FC Ingolstadt 04+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karlsruher SC ↓

FC Ingolstadt 04 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Karlsruher SC or draw

68%

Karlsruher SC or FC Ingolstadt 04

75%

Draw or FC Ingolstadt 04

56%

Winning margin

Karlsruher SC wins by 2+

22%

FC Ingolstadt 04 wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Karlsruher SC 1+ goals

79%

Karlsruher SC 2+ goals

46%

Karlsruher SC 3+ goals

21%

FC Ingolstadt 04 1+ goals

72%

FC Ingolstadt 04 2+ goals

37%

FC Ingolstadt 04 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Karlsruher SC (draw refunded)

58%

FC Ingolstadt 04 (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karlsruher SC at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.46 · 127 matches

FC Ingolstadt 04 away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.36 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karlsruher SC attack 1.77 + FC Ingolstadt 04 defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.56

FC Ingolstadt 04 attack 1.12 + Karlsruher SC defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Karlsruher SC scores more

44%

level

25%

FC Ingolstadt 04 scores more

32%

Karlsruher SC at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Karlsruher SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

M. Wanitzek

Karlsruher SC · M

9.3

Match Events

24'

P. SchmidtPenalty

25'

Patrick Schmidt

36'

F. Irorere← D. OShaughnessy

39'

Michael Heinloth

45+2'

Jérôme Gondorf

46'

C. Gebauer← M. Heinloth

46'

F. Bilbija

53'

M. Lorenz← T. Breithaupt

53'

J. Rabold← R. van Rhijn

53'

K. Jakob← P. Heise

53'

Choi Kyoung-Rok← B. Goller

58'

N. Röseler← T. Schröck

59'

Philipp Hofmann

67'

Filip Bilbija

68'

S. Kutschke← F. Pick

68'

V. Sulejmani← P. Schmidt

69'

F. Schleusener↳ M. Wanitzek

70'

Nico Antonitsch

75'

P. Hofmann↳ M. Wanitzek

76'

M. Gaus← M. Röhl

90+1'

Dominik Franke

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

KarlsruherFC

Overview

69%Possession31%

27Total Shots10

9Corners2

13Fouls14

Shots

27Total Shots10

9On Target4

11Off Target3

7Blocked3

20Inside Box4

7Outside Box6

Passing

69%Possession31%

574Total Passes259

472Accurate Passes167

82%Pass Accuracy64%

Goalkeeping

2Saves6

Discipline

13Fouls14

2Yellow Cards5

1Offsides1