Karlsruher SC U19 1–1 Stuttgarter K'rs U19

Karlsruher SC U19

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Stuttgarter K'rs U19

M. Batmaz 18'

B. Cetinkaya 83'

2/23/2019

U19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 18Wildpark Platz 6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Karlsruher SC U1960%

×Draw19%

Stuttgarter K'rs U1920%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Karlsruher SC U19Expected goals in this matchStuttgarter K'rs U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.35

1.30

Karlsruher SC U19

2.35

Stuttgarter K'rs U19

1.30

Karlsruher SC U19 creates 81% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 59 away

2.10

creates per match

1.27

1.33

allows per match

2.61

creates per match

Karlsruher SC U19

2.10

Stuttgarter K'rs U19

1.27

allows per match

Karlsruher SC U19

1.33

Stuttgarter K'rs U19

2.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Karlsruher SC U19+0.00on par

Stuttgarter K'rs U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karlsruher SC U19 ↓

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Karlsruher SC U19 or draw

80%

Karlsruher SC U19 or Stuttgarter K'rs U19

81%

Draw or Stuttgarter K'rs U19

40%

Winning margin

Karlsruher SC U19 wins by 2+

39%

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Karlsruher SC U19 1+ goals

90%

Karlsruher SC U19 2+ goals

68%

Karlsruher SC U19 3+ goals

41%

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 1+ goals

73%

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 2+ goals

37%

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Karlsruher SC U19 (draw refunded)

75%

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karlsruher SC U19 at home — creates 2.10, concedes 1.33 · 73 matches

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 away — creates 1.27, concedes 2.61 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karlsruher SC U19 attack 2.10 + Stuttgarter K'rs U19 defence 2.61 → ÷2 → 2.35

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 attack 1.27 + Karlsruher SC U19 defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Karlsruher SC U19 scores more

60%

level

19%

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 scores more

20%

Karlsruher SC U19 at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Karlsruher SC U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

M. Batmaz

28'

G. Gamuzza← A. Sanozidis

46'

N. Benkeser← T. Jukić

56'

L. Maric← A. Hajdarovic

68'

D. Trivunic← T. Herm

75'

S. Mensah← I. Hoffmann

77'

J. Wild← T. Irion

83'

B. Cetinkaya

85'

J. Schmidtke← N. Singelmann

87'

T. Meier← M. Subaric

Karlsruher

Stuttgarter

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: Z. Bajramović

68'▲D. Trivunic←▼T. Herm

75'▲S. Mensah←▼I. Hoffmann

85'▲J. Schmidtke←▼N. Singelmann

87'▲T. Meier←▼M. Subaric

Karlsruher SC U19 substitutes

TrivunicMensahSchmidtkeMeierLöhrKeckFrey

Manager: M. Kovacevic

28'▲G. Gamuzza←▼A. Sanozidis

46'▲N. Benkeser←▼T. Jukić

56'▲L. Maric←▼A. Hajdarovic

77'▲J. Wild←▼T. Irion

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 substitutes

GamuzzaBenkeserMaricWildGashiFilipovic