Karlsruher SC U19 0–1 Stuttgart U19: Result & Stats

Karlsruher SC U19

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Stuttgart U19

4/20/2024

U19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 23Platz 2 Wildparkstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Karlsruher SC U1933%

×Draw21%

Stuttgart U1946%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Karlsruher SC U19Expected goals in this matchStuttgart U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

2.06

Karlsruher SC U19

1.71

Stuttgart U19

2.06

Stuttgart U19 creates 20% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 71 away

2.07

creates per match

2.75

1.37

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Karlsruher SC U19

2.07

Stuttgart U19

2.75

allows per match

Karlsruher SC U19

1.37

Stuttgart U19

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Karlsruher SC U19+0.00on par

Stuttgart U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karlsruher SC U19 ↓

Stuttgart U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Karlsruher SC U19 or draw

54%

Karlsruher SC U19 or Stuttgart U19

79%

Draw or Stuttgart U19

67%

Winning margin

Karlsruher SC U19 wins by 2+

16%

Stuttgart U19 wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Karlsruher SC U19 1+ goals

82%

Karlsruher SC U19 2+ goals

51%

Karlsruher SC U19 3+ goals

24%

Stuttgart U19 1+ goals

87%

Stuttgart U19 2+ goals

61%

Stuttgart U19 3+ goals

34%

Draw no bet

Karlsruher SC U19 (draw refunded)

41%

Stuttgart U19 (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karlsruher SC U19 at home — creates 2.07, concedes 1.37 · 70 matches

Stuttgart U19 away — creates 2.75, concedes 1.34 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karlsruher SC U19 attack 2.07 + Stuttgart U19 defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.71

Stuttgart U19 attack 2.75 + Karlsruher SC U19 defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 2.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Karlsruher SC U19 scores more

33%

level

21%

Stuttgart U19 scores more

46%

Stuttgart U19 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Stuttgart U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff