Karlsruher SC U19 3–1 Saarbrücken U19

Karlsruher SC U19

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Saarbrücken U19

T. Rossmann 82'

E. Öztürk 13'

J. Gerold 3'

S. Maas 15'

2/19/2022

U19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 15Platz 2 Wildparkstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Karlsruher SC U1965%

×Draw18%

Saarbrücken U1917%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Karlsruher SC U19Expected goals in this matchSaarbrücken U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.54

1.26

Karlsruher SC U19

2.54

Saarbrücken U19

1.26

Karlsruher SC U19 creates 102% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 37 away

2.10

creates per match

1.19

1.33

allows per match

2.97

creates per match

Karlsruher SC U19

2.10

Saarbrücken U19

1.19

allows per match

Karlsruher SC U19

1.33

Saarbrücken U19

2.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Karlsruher SC U19+0.00on par

Saarbrücken U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karlsruher SC U19 ↓

Saarbrücken U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–17%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Karlsruher SC U19 or draw

83%

Karlsruher SC U19 or Saarbrücken U19

82%

Draw or Saarbrücken U19

35%

Winning margin

Karlsruher SC U19 wins by 2+

43%

Saarbrücken U19 wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Karlsruher SC U19 1+ goals

92%

Karlsruher SC U19 2+ goals

72%

Karlsruher SC U19 3+ goals

46%

Saarbrücken U19 1+ goals

72%

Saarbrücken U19 2+ goals

36%

Saarbrücken U19 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Karlsruher SC U19 (draw refunded)

79%

Saarbrücken U19 (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karlsruher SC U19 at home — creates 2.10, concedes 1.33 · 73 matches

Saarbrücken U19 away — creates 1.19, concedes 2.97 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karlsruher SC U19 attack 2.10 + Saarbrücken U19 defence 2.97 → ÷2 → 2.54

Saarbrücken U19 attack 1.19 + Karlsruher SC U19 defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Karlsruher SC U19 scores more

65%

level

18%

Saarbrücken U19 scores more

17%

Karlsruher SC U19 at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Karlsruher SC U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

13'

15'

58'

69'

79'

82'

85'

87'

A. Paunescu← J. Gerold

89'

Y. Flausse← S. Maas

90+1'

K. Elabed← S. Marino

90+1'

L. Knapp← N. Theisinger

Karlsruher

Saarbrücken

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

Gerold

Manager: R. Kettemann

85'▲J. Atila←▼R. Kalici

87'▲A. Paunescu←▼J. Gerold

90+1'▲K. Elabed←▼S. Marino

90+1'▲L. Knapp←▼N. Theisinger

Karlsruher SC U19 substitutes

AtilaPaunescuElabedKnappFelsenSchleichGeller

Manager: E. Melunovic

58'▲L. Weis←▼D. Cullmann

69'▲A. Breuer←▼T. Walle

79'▲F. Geißler←▼I. Smith

89'▲Y. Flausse←▼S. Maas

Saarbrücken U19 substitutes

WeisBreuerGeißlerFlausseDupréSimsekWeber

U19 Bundesliga: Karlsruher SC U19 3–1 Saarbrücken U19

Karlsruher SC U19 beat Saarbrücken U19 3-1 in U19 Bundesliga on February 19, 2022.

Goals: J. Gerold (3'), E. Öztürk (13'), S. Maas (15'), T. Rossmann (82').

The match was played at Platz 2 Wildparkstadion in Karlsruhe.

Karlsruher SC U19 vs Saarbrücken U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Karlsruher SC U19 3–1 Saarbrücken U19