Karlsruher SC U19 4–1 Reutlingen U19

Karlsruher SC U19

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Reutlingen U19

F. Alpsoy 90+3', 90'

S. Souleymané 27'

N. Seidel 4'

A. Dragulin 14'

2/11/2023

U19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 13Platz 2 Wildparkstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Karlsruher SC U1963%

×Draw19%

Reutlingen U1918%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Karlsruher SC U19Expected goals in this matchReutlingen U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.38

1.21

Karlsruher SC U19

2.38

Reutlingen U19

1.21

Karlsruher SC U19 creates 97% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 16 away

2.07

creates per match

1.06

1.35

allows per match

2.69

creates per match

Karlsruher SC U19

2.07

Reutlingen U19

1.06

allows per match

Karlsruher SC U19

1.35

Reutlingen U19

2.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Karlsruher SC U19+0.00on par

Reutlingen U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karlsruher SC U19 ↓

Reutlingen U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Karlsruher SC U19 or draw

82%

Karlsruher SC U19 or Reutlingen U19

81%

Draw or Reutlingen U19

37%

Winning margin

Karlsruher SC U19 wins by 2+

41%

Reutlingen U19 wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Karlsruher SC U19 1+ goals

91%

Karlsruher SC U19 2+ goals

68%

Karlsruher SC U19 3+ goals

42%

Reutlingen U19 1+ goals

70%

Reutlingen U19 2+ goals

34%

Reutlingen U19 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Karlsruher SC U19 (draw refunded)

78%

Reutlingen U19 (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karlsruher SC U19 at home — creates 2.07, concedes 1.35 · 71 matches

Reutlingen U19 away — creates 1.06, concedes 2.69 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karlsruher SC U19 attack 2.07 + Reutlingen U19 defence 2.69 → ÷2 → 2.38

Reutlingen U19 attack 1.06 + Karlsruher SC U19 defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Karlsruher SC U19 scores more

63%

level

19%

Reutlingen U19 scores more

18%

Karlsruher SC U19 at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Karlsruher SC U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

14'

27'

70'

75'

A. Ersungur← R. Kalici

75'

F. Alpsoy← S. Souleymané

80'

D. Smiljic← C. Buturuga

86'

R. Ries← J. Gerold

86'

C. Mijatovic← C. Henning

90'

A. Weigand← E. Sarikaya

90'

T. Souchard← M. Schwarz

90'

F. Alpsoy

90+3'

F. Alpsoy

Karlsruher

Reutlingen

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: R. Kettemann

75'▲A. Ersungur←▼R. Kalici

75'▲F. Alpsoy←▼S. Souleymané

86'▲R. Ries←▼J. Gerold

90'▲A. Weigand←▼E. Sarikaya

90'▲T. Souchard←▼M. Schwarz

Karlsruher SC U19 substitutes

ErsungurAlpsoyRiesWeigandSouchardSchwarzFelsen

Manager: M. Stingel

70'▲T. Ankele←▼D. Zenner

80'▲D. Smiljic←▼C. Buturuga

86'▲C. Mijatovic←▼C. Henning

Reutlingen U19 substitutes

AnkeleSmiljicMijatovicDjakovicWartigMaricWlodarski