Karlsruher SC U19 6–0 Hessen Kassel U19

Karlsruher SC U19

FT

6 – 0

HT: 4 – 0

Hessen Kassel U19

J. Gerold 66'

R. Geller 50'

S. Marino 41', 11'

T. Rossmann 33'

M. Schwarz 26'

4/10/2022

U19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 19Platz 2 Wildparkstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Karlsruher SC U1984%

×Draw10%

Hessen Kassel U196%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Karlsruher SC U19Expected goals in this matchHessen Kassel U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.59

0.91

Karlsruher SC U19

3.59

Hessen Kassel U19

0.91

Karlsruher SC U19 creates 295% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 10 away

2.08

creates per match

0.50

1.32

allows per match

5.10

creates per match

Karlsruher SC U19

2.08

Hessen Kassel U19

0.50

allows per match

Karlsruher SC U19

1.32

Hessen Kassel U19

5.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Karlsruher SC U19+0.00on par

Hessen Kassel U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over81
Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karlsruher SC U19 ↓

Hessen Kassel U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–14%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–08%

4–18%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (9%) · grid covers 76% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

81%19%3.5

63%37%4.5

43%57%

Double chance

Karlsruher SC U19 or draw

94%

Karlsruher SC U19 or Hessen Kassel U19

90%

Draw or Hessen Kassel U19

16%

Winning margin

Karlsruher SC U19 wins by 2+

68%

Hessen Kassel U19 wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Karlsruher SC U19 1+ goals

97%

Karlsruher SC U19 2+ goals

86%

Karlsruher SC U19 3+ goals

67%

Hessen Kassel U19 1+ goals

60%

Hessen Kassel U19 2+ goals

23%

Hessen Kassel U19 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Karlsruher SC U19 (draw refunded)

94%

Hessen Kassel U19 (draw refunded)

6%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karlsruher SC U19 at home — creates 2.08, concedes 1.32 · 74 matches

Hessen Kassel U19 away — creates 0.50, concedes 5.10 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karlsruher SC U19 attack 2.08 + Hessen Kassel U19 defence 5.10 → ÷2 → 3.59

Hessen Kassel U19 attack 0.50 + Karlsruher SC U19 defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 84%?"

Karlsruher SC U19 scores more

84%

level

10%

Hessen Kassel U19 scores more

6%

Karlsruher SC U19 at 84% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 84% does not mean "Karlsruher SC U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

S. Marino

26'

M. Schwarz

33'

T. Rossmann

34'

D. Farcas← T. Trittel

41'

S. Marino

46'

J. Schleich← K. Elabed

50'

R. Geller

60'

A. Paunescu← J. Weißer

60'

J. Gerold← S. Marino

60'

R. Kalici← T. Rossmann

66'

J. Gerold

Karlsruher

Hessen

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

⚽2

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: R. Kettemann

46'▲J. Schleich←▼K. Elabed

60'▲A. Paunescu←▼J. Weißer

60'▲J. Gerold←▼S. Marino

60'▲R. Kalici←▼T. Rossmann

Karlsruher SC U19 substitutes

SchleichPaunescuGeroldKaliciAtilaFelsenKnapp

Manager: A. Noja

34'▲D. Farcas←▼T. Trittel

Hessen Kassel U19 substitutes

FarcasArslanAgyekum