Karlsruher SC U19 3–1 Hertha BSC U19

Karlsruher SC U19

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Hertha BSC U19

L. Ben Farhat 90', 33'

N. Behr 61'

M. Krumhaar 74'

10/5/2024

DFB Junioren Pokal · Round of 16Arthur-Beier-Stadion im Wildparkareal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Karlsruher SC U1943%

×Draw22%

Hertha BSC U1935%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Karlsruher SC U19Expected goals in this matchHertha BSC U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.89

1.67

Karlsruher SC U19

1.89

Hertha BSC U19

1.67

Karlsruher SC U19 creates 13% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 9 away

2.33

creates per match

2.67

0.67

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Karlsruher SC U19

2.33

Hertha BSC U19

2.67

allows per match

Karlsruher SC U19

0.67

Hertha BSC U19

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Karlsruher SC U19+0.00on par

Hertha BSC U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karlsruher SC U19 ↓

Hertha BSC U19 →

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Karlsruher SC U19 or draw

65%

Karlsruher SC U19 or Hertha BSC U19

78%

Draw or Hertha BSC U19

57%

Winning margin

Karlsruher SC U19 wins by 2+

24%

Hertha BSC U19 wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Karlsruher SC U19 1+ goals

85%

Karlsruher SC U19 2+ goals

56%

Karlsruher SC U19 3+ goals

29%

Hertha BSC U19 1+ goals

81%

Hertha BSC U19 2+ goals

50%

Hertha BSC U19 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Karlsruher SC U19 (draw refunded)

56%

Hertha BSC U19 (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Karlsruher SC U19 at home — creates 2.33, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Hertha BSC U19 away — creates 2.67, concedes 1.44 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Karlsruher SC U19 attack 2.33 + Hertha BSC U19 defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.89

Hertha BSC U19 attack 2.67 + Karlsruher SC U19 defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 43%?"

Karlsruher SC U19 scores more

43%

level

22%

Hertha BSC U19 scores more

35%

Karlsruher SC U19 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Karlsruher SC U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

33'

L. Ben Farhat

46'

N. Behr← T. Schunck

46'

B. Brusdeilins← L. Jerlija

61'

N. Behr

67'

E. Gündüz← A. Traoré

74'

M. Krumhaar

78'

E. Pop← K. Cirpan

78'

S. Guggenbühler← F. Lutolli

86'

C. Ishionwu← M. Krumhaar

86'

Y. Mausehund← P. Aydogan

90+1'

D. Zor← L. Ben Farhat

90+1'

H. Arbai← M. Şen

90'

L. Ben Farhat

Karlsruher

Hertha

Özkanlı

Greber

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: R. Kettemann

46'▲N. Behr←▼T. Schunck

78'▲E. Pop←▼K. Cirpan

78'▲S. Guggenbühler←▼F. Lutolli

90+1'▲D. Zor←▼L. Ben Farhat

90+1'▲H. Arbai←▼M. Şen

Karlsruher SC U19 substitutes

BehrPopGuggenbühlerZorArbaiGünesRega

Manager: M. Hartmann

46'▲B. Brusdeilins←▼L. Jerlija

67'▲E. Gündüz←▼A. Traoré

86'▲C. Ishionwu←▼M. Krumhaar

86'▲Y. Mausehund←▼P. Aydogan

Hertha BSC U19 substitutes

BrusdeilinsGündüzIshionwuMausehundKoldžićBrennBah

Match Recap: Karlsruher SC U19 vs Hertha BSC U19

Karlsruher SC U19 beat Hertha BSC U19 3-1 in DFB Junioren Pokal on October 5, 2024.

Goals: L. Ben Farhat (33', 90'), N. Behr (61'), M. Krumhaar (74').

The match was played at Arthur-Beier-Stadion im Wildparkareal in Karlsruhe.

Karlsruher SC U19 vs Hertha BSC U19 — DFB Junioren Pokal 2020

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Karlsruher SC U19 vs Hertha BSC U19