Karlsruher SC U19 2–0 Astoria Walldorf U19

Karlsruher SC U19

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Astoria Walldorf U19

B. Fietkau 56'

D. Galjen 25'

9/25/2020

U19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 2Platz 2 Wildparkstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Karlsruher SC U1956%

×Draw21%

Astoria Walldorf U1923%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Karlsruher SC U19Expected goals in this matchAstoria Walldorf U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.12

1.31

Karlsruher SC U19

2.12

Astoria Walldorf U19

1.31

Karlsruher SC U19 creates 62% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 23 away

2.07

creates per match

1.26

1.37

allows per match

2.17

creates per match

Karlsruher SC U19

2.07

Astoria Walldorf U19

1.26

allows per match

Karlsruher SC U19

1.37

Astoria Walldorf U19

2.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Karlsruher SC U19+0.00on par

Astoria Walldorf U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karlsruher SC U19 ↓

Astoria Walldorf U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Karlsruher SC U19 or draw

77%

Karlsruher SC U19 or Astoria Walldorf U19

79%

Draw or Astoria Walldorf U19

44%

Winning margin

Karlsruher SC U19 wins by 2+

34%

Astoria Walldorf U19 wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Karlsruher SC U19 1+ goals

88%

Karlsruher SC U19 2+ goals

62%

Karlsruher SC U19 3+ goals

35%

Astoria Walldorf U19 1+ goals

73%

Astoria Walldorf U19 2+ goals

38%

Astoria Walldorf U19 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Karlsruher SC U19 (draw refunded)

70%

Astoria Walldorf U19 (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karlsruher SC U19 at home — creates 2.07, concedes 1.37 · 70 matches

Astoria Walldorf U19 away — creates 1.26, concedes 2.17 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karlsruher SC U19 attack 2.07 + Astoria Walldorf U19 defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 2.12

Astoria Walldorf U19 attack 1.26 + Karlsruher SC U19 defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Karlsruher SC U19 scores more

56%

level

21%

Astoria Walldorf U19 scores more

23%

Karlsruher SC U19 at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Karlsruher SC U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'

D. Galjen

52'

A. Freiwald← C. Wähling

56'

B. Fietkau

64'

J. Dietrich← D. Schmidt

68'

N. Theisinger← M. Weißer

74'

P. Pagna

79'

J. Hagmaier← N. Bajušić

80'

A. Rafailidis← P. Seemann

85'

M. Varivoda← D. Galjen

88'

J. Laboard← S. Noci

Karlsruher

Astoria

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

Galjen

Manager: Z. Bajramović

52'▲A. Freiwald←▼C. Wähling

68'▲N. Theisinger←▼M. Weißer

80'▲A. Rafailidis←▼P. Seemann

85'▲M. Varivoda←▼D. Galjen

Karlsruher SC U19 substitutes

FreiwaldTheisingerRafailidisVarivodaBungicGeltVoll

Manager: Roberto Pinto

64'▲J. Dietrich←▼D. Schmidt

79'▲J. Hagmaier←▼N. Bajušić

88'▲J. Laboard←▼S. Noci

Astoria Walldorf U19 substitutes

DietrichHagmaierLaboardDervisMerzManskeSimonis