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Karlslunde vs Slagelse B&I — 3. Division 2021

Karlslunde
Karlslunde
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Slagelse B&I
Slagelse B&I
10/23/20213. Division3. Division · Round 13Karlslunde Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Karlslunde61%
×Draw19%
Slagelse B&I19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Karlslunde
2.34
Slagelse B&I
1.25

Karlslunde creates 87% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 16 away

creates per match

Karlslunde
2.19
Slagelse B&I
1.06

allows per match

Karlslunde
1.44
Slagelse B&I
2.50

finishing

Karlslunde+0.00on par
Slagelse B&I+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karlslunde ↓

Slagelse B&I →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Karlslunde or draw
81%
Karlslunde or Slagelse B&I
81%
Draw or Slagelse B&I
39%

Winning margin

Karlslunde wins by 2+
39%
Slagelse B&I wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Karlslunde 1+ goals
90%
Karlslunde 2+ goals
67%
Karlslunde 3+ goals
41%
Slagelse B&I 1+ goals
71%
Slagelse B&I 2+ goals
36%
Slagelse B&I 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Karlslunde (draw refunded)
76%
Slagelse B&I (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karlslunde at home — creates 2.19, concedes 1.44 · 16 matches

Slagelse B&I away — creates 1.06, concedes 2.50 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karlslunde attack 2.19 + Slagelse B&I defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.34

Slagelse B&I attack 1.06 + Karlslunde defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Karlslunde scores more
61%
level
19%
Slagelse B&I scores more
19%

Karlslunde at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Karlslunde will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division: Karlslunde 1–3 Slagelse B&I

Slagelse B&I beat Karlslunde 3-1 in 3. Division on October 23, 2021.

The match was played at Karlslunde Stadion in Karlslunde.