Karlslunde 2–3 Lyseng: Result & Stats | 3. Division

Karlslunde

FT

2 – 3

HT: 2 – 1

Lyseng

9/25/2021

3. Division · Round 9Karlslunde Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Karlslunde56%

×Draw20%

Lyseng24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KarlslundeExpected goals in this matchLyseng

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.20

1.39

Karlslunde

2.20

Lyseng

1.39

Karlslunde creates 58% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 79 away

2.19

creates per match

1.34

1.44

allows per match

2.20

creates per match

Karlslunde

2.19

Lyseng

1.34

allows per match

Karlslunde

1.44

Lyseng

2.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Karlslunde+0.00on par

Lyseng+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karlslunde ↓

Lyseng →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Karlslunde or draw

76%

Karlslunde or Lyseng

80%

Draw or Lyseng

44%

Winning margin

Karlslunde wins by 2+

34%

Lyseng wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Karlslunde 1+ goals

89%

Karlslunde 2+ goals

64%

Karlslunde 3+ goals

37%

Lyseng 1+ goals

75%

Lyseng 2+ goals

40%

Lyseng 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Karlslunde (draw refunded)

70%

Lyseng (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karlslunde at home — creates 2.19, concedes 1.44 · 16 matches

Lyseng away — creates 1.34, concedes 2.20 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karlslunde attack 2.19 + Lyseng defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.20

Lyseng attack 1.34 + Karlslunde defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Karlslunde scores more

56%

level

20%

Lyseng scores more

24%

Karlslunde at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Karlslunde will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff