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Karlskrona vs Osters IF — Svenska Cupen 2019

Karlskrona
Karlskrona
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Osters IF
Osters IF
8/21/2019Svenska CupenSvenska Cupen · 2nd RoundVästra Marks IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Karlskrona38%
×Draw25%
Osters IF38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Karlskrona
1.45
Osters IF
1.45

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 3 home / 14 away

creates per match

Karlskrona
1.33
Osters IF
1.57

allows per match

Karlskrona
1.33
Osters IF
1.57

finishing

Karlskrona+0.00on par
Osters IF+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karlskrona ↓

Osters IF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Karlskrona or draw
62%
Karlskrona or Osters IF
75%
Draw or Osters IF
62%

Winning margin

Karlskrona wins by 2+
18%
Osters IF wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Karlskrona 1+ goals
77%
Karlskrona 2+ goals
42%
Karlskrona 3+ goals
18%
Osters IF 1+ goals
77%
Osters IF 2+ goals
42%
Osters IF 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Karlskrona (draw refunded)
50%
Osters IF (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karlskrona at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Osters IF away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.57 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karlskrona attack 1.33 + Osters IF defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.45

Osters IF attack 1.57 + Karlskrona defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Karlskrona scores more
38%
level
25%
Osters IF scores more
38%

Karlskrona at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Karlskrona will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Svenska Cupen: Karlskrona 2–1 Osters IF

Karlskrona beat Osters IF 2-1 in Svenska Cupen on August 21, 2019.

The match was played at Västra Marks IP in Karlskrona.