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Karlskrona vs Malmo FF — Svenska Cupen 2019

Karlskrona
Karlskrona
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Malmo FF
Malmo FF
3/1/2020Svenska CupenSvenska Cupen · Group Stage - 2Västra Marks IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Karlskrona16%
×Draw20%
Malmo FF64%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Karlskrona
0.95
Malmo FF
2.13

Malmo FF creates 124% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 14 away

creates per match

Karlskrona
1.33
Malmo FF
2.93

allows per match

Karlskrona
1.33
Malmo FF
0.57

finishing

Karlskrona+0.00on par
Malmo FF+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karlskrona ↓

Malmo FF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–110%
0–210%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Karlskrona or draw
36%
Karlskrona or Malmo FF
80%
Draw or Malmo FF
84%

Winning margin

Karlskrona wins by 2+
5%
Malmo FF wins by 2+
40%

Team goals

Karlskrona 1+ goals
61%
Karlskrona 2+ goals
25%
Karlskrona 3+ goals
7%
Malmo FF 1+ goals
88%
Malmo FF 2+ goals
63%
Malmo FF 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Karlskrona (draw refunded)
20%
Malmo FF (draw refunded)
80%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karlskrona at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Malmo FF away — creates 2.93, concedes 0.57 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karlskrona attack 1.33 + Malmo FF defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.95

Malmo FF attack 2.93 + Karlskrona defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 2.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Karlskrona scores more
16%
level
20%
Malmo FF scores more
64%

Malmo FF at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Malmo FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Svenska Cupen: Karlskrona 1–2 Malmo FF

Malmo FF beat Karlskrona 2-1 in Svenska Cupen on March 1, 2020.

The match was played at Västra Marks IP in Karlskrona.