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Karlovy Vary vs Dukla Praha II — 3. liga - CFL A 2019

Karlovy Vary
Karlovy Vary
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Dukla Praha II
Dukla Praha II
8/5/20233. liga - CFL A3. liga - CFL A · ČFL A - 1Drahovice UMT

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Karlovy Vary39%
×Draw23%
Dukla Praha II38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Karlovy Vary
1.67
Dukla Praha II
1.66

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 54 home / 61 away

creates per match

Karlovy Vary
1.65
Dukla Praha II
1.69

allows per match

Karlovy Vary
1.63
Dukla Praha II
1.69

finishing

Karlovy Vary+0.00on par
Dukla Praha II+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karlovy Vary ↓

Dukla Praha II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
65%35%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Karlovy Vary or draw
62%
Karlovy Vary or Dukla Praha II
77%
Draw or Dukla Praha II
61%

Winning margin

Karlovy Vary wins by 2+
20%
Dukla Praha II wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Karlovy Vary 1+ goals
81%
Karlovy Vary 2+ goals
50%
Karlovy Vary 3+ goals
23%
Dukla Praha II 1+ goals
81%
Dukla Praha II 2+ goals
49%
Dukla Praha II 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Karlovy Vary (draw refunded)
50%
Dukla Praha II (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karlovy Vary at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.63 · 54 matches

Dukla Praha II away — creates 1.69, concedes 1.69 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karlovy Vary attack 1.65 + Dukla Praha II defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.67

Dukla Praha II attack 1.69 + Karlovy Vary defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Karlovy Vary scores more
39%
level
23%
Dukla Praha II scores more
38%

Karlovy Vary at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Karlovy Vary will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - CFL A: Karlovy Vary 0–1 Dukla Praha II

Dukla Praha II beat Karlovy Vary 1-0 in 3. liga - CFL A on August 5, 2023.

The match was played at Drahovice UMT in Karlovy Vary.