Karlovy Vary vs Bohemians 1905 II — 3. liga - CFL A 2019
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 54+ matches
Karlovy Vary43%
Bohemians 1905 II34%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Karlovy Vary creates 13% more chances
Season form · 54 home / 61 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over64
- Under36
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes65
- No35
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Karlovy Vary ↓
Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Karlovy Vary at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.63 · 54 matches
Bohemians 1905 II away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.85 · 61 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Karlovy Vary attack 1.65 + Bohemians 1905 II defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.75
Bohemians 1905 II attack 1.48 + Karlovy Vary defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.55
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 43%?"
Karlovy Vary at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 43% does not mean "Karlovy Vary will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
Kladno
Jiskra Domažlice
Viktoria Plzeň II
Písek
Králův Dvůr
Admira Praha
Slavia III
České Budějovice II
Aritma Praha
Loko Vltavín
Příbram IIBohemians 1905 II
Dukla Praha II
Motorlet Praha
Sokol Hostouň
Petřín Plzeň
Táborsko IIIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Karlovy Vary host Bohemians 1905 II on Saturday, 6 August 2022 at 16:00. The match is part of the 3. liga - CFL A 2019/2020 season.
3. liga - CFL A: Karlovy Vary 2–0 Bohemians 1905 II
Karlovy Vary beat Bohemians 1905 II 2-0 in 3. liga - CFL A on August 6, 2022.
The match was played at Drahovice UMT in Karlovy Vary.