Karlovac 1919 4–0 Rudar: Result & Stats

Karlovac 1919

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Rudar

Unknown 77', 69', 59', 27'

2/2/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Karlovac 191977%

×Draw16%

Rudar8%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Karlovac 1919Expected goals in this matchRudar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.38

0.60

Karlovac 1919

2.38

Rudar

0.60

Karlovac 1919 creates 297% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 10 away

1.75

creates per match

0.20

1.00

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

Karlovac 1919

1.75

Rudar

0.20

allows per match

Karlovac 1919

1.00

Rudar

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Karlovac 1919+0.00on par

Rudar+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karlovac 1919 ↓

Rudar →

0–05%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1–012%

1–17%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2–015%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–012%

3–17%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4–07%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (15%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Karlovac 1919 or draw

92%

Karlovac 1919 or Rudar

84%

Draw or Rudar

23%

Winning margin

Karlovac 1919 wins by 2+

54%

Rudar wins by 2+

Team goals

Karlovac 1919 1+ goals

91%

Karlovac 1919 2+ goals

68%

Karlovac 1919 3+ goals

42%

Rudar 1+ goals

45%

Rudar 2+ goals

12%

Rudar 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Karlovac 1919 (draw refunded)

91%

Rudar (draw refunded)

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Karlovac 1919 at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Rudar away — creates 0.20, concedes 3.00 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Karlovac 1919 attack 1.75 + Rudar defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.38

Rudar attack 0.20 + Karlovac 1919 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 77%?"

Karlovac 1919 scores more

77%

level

16%

Rudar scores more

Karlovac 1919 at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Karlovac 1919 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'

59'

69'

77'

Karlovac

Rudar

Manager: Igor Pamic

Manager: M. Lambulić