Karlburg 1–4 Kornburg: Result & Stats

Karlburg

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 1

Kornburg

10/12/2024

Oberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 16Fundamentum Sportpark Karlburg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Karlburg27%

×Draw23%

Kornburg50%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KarlburgExpected goals in this matchKornburg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.84

Karlburg

1.29

Kornburg

1.84

Kornburg creates 43% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 68 away

0.82

creates per match

1.44

2.24

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

Karlburg

0.82

Kornburg

1.44

allows per match

Karlburg

2.24

Kornburg

1.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Karlburg+0.00on par

Kornburg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karlburg ↓

Kornburg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–27%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Karlburg or draw

50%

Karlburg or Kornburg

77%

Draw or Kornburg

73%

Winning margin

Karlburg wins by 2+

11%

Kornburg wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Karlburg 1+ goals

72%

Karlburg 2+ goals

37%

Karlburg 3+ goals

14%

Kornburg 1+ goals

84%

Kornburg 2+ goals

55%

Kornburg 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Karlburg (draw refunded)

35%

Kornburg (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karlburg at home — creates 0.82, concedes 2.24 · 17 matches

Kornburg away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.76 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karlburg attack 0.82 + Kornburg defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.29

Kornburg attack 1.44 + Karlburg defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Karlburg scores more

27%

level

23%

Kornburg scores more

50%

Kornburg at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Kornburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff