Karlburg 3–3 Jahn Regensburg II: Result & Stats

Karlburg

FT

3 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Jahn Regensburg II

8/9/2024

Oberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 5Fundamentum Sportpark Karlburg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Karlburg28%

×Draw23%

Jahn Regensburg II49%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KarlburgExpected goals in this matchJahn Regensburg II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.86

Karlburg

1.36

Jahn Regensburg II

1.86

Jahn Regensburg II creates 37% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 69 away

0.82

creates per match

1.48

2.24

allows per match

1.91

creates per match

Karlburg

0.82

Jahn Regensburg II

1.48

allows per match

Karlburg

2.24

Jahn Regensburg II

1.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Karlburg+0.00on par

Jahn Regensburg II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karlburg ↓

Jahn Regensburg II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Karlburg or draw

51%

Karlburg or Jahn Regensburg II

77%

Draw or Jahn Regensburg II

72%

Winning margin

Karlburg wins by 2+

12%

Jahn Regensburg II wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Karlburg 1+ goals

74%

Karlburg 2+ goals

39%

Karlburg 3+ goals

16%

Jahn Regensburg II 1+ goals

84%

Jahn Regensburg II 2+ goals

55%

Jahn Regensburg II 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Karlburg (draw refunded)

36%

Jahn Regensburg II (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karlburg at home — creates 0.82, concedes 2.24 · 17 matches

Jahn Regensburg II away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.91 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karlburg attack 0.82 + Jahn Regensburg II defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.36

Jahn Regensburg II attack 1.48 + Karlburg defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Karlburg scores more

28%

level

23%

Jahn Regensburg II scores more

49%

Jahn Regensburg II at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Jahn Regensburg II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff