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Karlburg vs Cham — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Karlburg
Karlburg
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Cham
Cham
9/28/2024Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 13Fundamentum Sportpark Karlburg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Karlburg24%
×Draw23%
Cham53%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Karlburg
1.16
Cham
1.84

Cham creates 59% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 68 away

creates per match

Karlburg
0.82
Cham
1.44

allows per match

Karlburg
2.24
Cham
1.49

finishing

Karlburg+0.00on par
Cham+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karlburg ↓

Cham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Karlburg or draw
47%
Karlburg or Cham
77%
Draw or Cham
76%

Winning margin

Karlburg wins by 2+
9%
Cham wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Karlburg 1+ goals
69%
Karlburg 2+ goals
32%
Karlburg 3+ goals
11%
Cham 1+ goals
84%
Cham 2+ goals
55%
Cham 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Karlburg (draw refunded)
31%
Cham (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karlburg at home — creates 0.82, concedes 2.24 · 17 matches

Cham away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.49 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karlburg attack 0.82 + Cham defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.16

Cham attack 1.44 + Karlburg defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Karlburg scores more
24%
level
23%
Cham scores more
53%

Cham at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Cham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Karlburg vs Cham

Karlburg beat Cham 2-1 in Oberliga - Bayern Nord on September 28, 2024.

The match was played at Fundamentum Sportpark Karlburg in Karlstadt.