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Karlburg vs Ammerthal — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Karlburg
Karlburg
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Ammerthal
Ammerthal
4/12/2025Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 29Fundamentum Sportpark Karlburg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Karlburg27%
×Draw22%
Ammerthal51%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Karlburg
1.36
Ammerthal
1.94

Ammerthal creates 43% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 52 away

creates per match

Karlburg
0.82
Ammerthal
1.63

allows per match

Karlburg
2.24
Ammerthal
1.90

finishing

Karlburg+0.00on par
Ammerthal+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karlburg ↓

Ammerthal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Karlburg or draw
49%
Karlburg or Ammerthal
78%
Draw or Ammerthal
73%

Winning margin

Karlburg wins by 2+
12%
Ammerthal wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Karlburg 1+ goals
74%
Karlburg 2+ goals
39%
Karlburg 3+ goals
16%
Ammerthal 1+ goals
86%
Ammerthal 2+ goals
58%
Ammerthal 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Karlburg (draw refunded)
35%
Ammerthal (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karlburg at home — creates 0.82, concedes 2.24 · 17 matches

Ammerthal away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.90 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karlburg attack 0.82 + Ammerthal defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.36

Ammerthal attack 1.63 + Karlburg defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Karlburg scores more
27%
level
22%
Ammerthal scores more
51%

Ammerthal at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Ammerthal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Bayern Nord: Karlburg 0–3 Ammerthal

Ammerthal beat Karlburg 3-0 in Oberliga - Bayern Nord on April 12, 2025.

The match was played at Fundamentum Sportpark Karlburg in Karlstadt.