Karlberg 1–1 Ostersunds FK: Result & Stats

Karlberg

AET

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Ostersunds FK

8/21/2024

Svenska Cupen · 2nd RoundStadshagens IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Karlberg19%

×Draw24%

Ostersunds FK57%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KarlbergExpected goals in this matchOstersunds FK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.83

1.66

Karlberg

0.83

Ostersunds FK

1.66

Ostersunds FK creates 100% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 16 away

0.60

creates per match

1.31

2.00

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

Karlberg

0.60

Ostersunds FK

1.31

allows per match

Karlberg

2.00

Ostersunds FK

1.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Karlberg+0.00on par

Ostersunds FK+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karlberg ↓

Ostersunds FK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–114%

0–211%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Karlberg or draw

43%

Karlberg or Ostersunds FK

76%

Draw or Ostersunds FK

81%

Winning margin

Karlberg wins by 2+

6%

Ostersunds FK wins by 2+

31%

Team goals

Karlberg 1+ goals

56%

Karlberg 2+ goals

20%

Karlberg 3+ goals

5%

Ostersunds FK 1+ goals

81%

Ostersunds FK 2+ goals

49%

Ostersunds FK 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Karlberg (draw refunded)

25%

Ostersunds FK (draw refunded)

75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karlberg at home — creates 0.60, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

Ostersunds FK away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.06 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karlberg attack 0.60 + Ostersunds FK defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.83

Ostersunds FK attack 1.31 + Karlberg defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Karlberg scores more

19%

level

24%

Ostersunds FK scores more

57%

Ostersunds FK at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Ostersunds FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff