Karlberg 1–0 IFK Eskilstuna: Result & Stats

Karlberg

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

IFK Eskilstuna

4/30/2022

Division 2 - Södra Svealand · Södra Svealand - 5Stadshagens IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Karlberg66%

×Draw19%

IFK Eskilstuna15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KarlbergExpected goals in this matchIFK Eskilstuna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.33

1.02

Karlberg

2.33

IFK Eskilstuna

1.02

Karlberg creates 128% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 60 away

2.23

creates per match

1.43

0.62

allows per match

2.42

creates per match

Karlberg

2.23

IFK Eskilstuna

1.43

allows per match

Karlberg

0.62

IFK Eskilstuna

2.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Karlberg+0.00on par

IFK Eskilstuna+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karlberg ↓

IFK Eskilstuna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–18%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Karlberg or draw

85%

Karlberg or IFK Eskilstuna

81%

Draw or IFK Eskilstuna

34%

Winning margin

Karlberg wins by 2+

43%

IFK Eskilstuna wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Karlberg 1+ goals

90%

Karlberg 2+ goals

67%

Karlberg 3+ goals

41%

IFK Eskilstuna 1+ goals

64%

IFK Eskilstuna 2+ goals

27%

IFK Eskilstuna 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Karlberg (draw refunded)

81%

IFK Eskilstuna (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karlberg at home — creates 2.23, concedes 0.62 · 13 matches

IFK Eskilstuna away — creates 1.43, concedes 2.42 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karlberg attack 2.23 + IFK Eskilstuna defence 2.42 → ÷2 → 2.33

IFK Eskilstuna attack 1.43 + Karlberg defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Karlberg scores more

66%

level

19%

IFK Eskilstuna scores more

15%

Karlberg at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Karlberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff