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Karlberg vs IF Brommapojkarna — Svenska Cupen 2019

Karlberg
Karlberg
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 3
IF Brommapojkarna
IF Brommapojkarna
8/19/2020Svenska CupenSvenska Cupen · 1st RoundStadshagens IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Karlberg11%
×Draw18%
IF Brommapojkarna72%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Karlberg
0.73
IF Brommapojkarna
2.25

IF Brommapojkarna creates 208% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 14 away

creates per match

Karlberg
0.60
IF Brommapojkarna
2.50

allows per match

Karlberg
2.00
IF Brommapojkarna
0.86

finishing

Karlberg+0.00on par
IF Brommapojkarna+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karlberg ↓

IF Brommapojkarna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–112%
0–213%
0–310%
0–45%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–23%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (13%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Karlberg or draw
28%
Karlberg or IF Brommapojkarna
82%
Draw or IF Brommapojkarna
89%

Winning margin

Karlberg wins by 2+
3%
IF Brommapojkarna wins by 2+
48%

Team goals

Karlberg 1+ goals
52%
Karlberg 2+ goals
17%
Karlberg 3+ goals
4%
IF Brommapojkarna 1+ goals
89%
IF Brommapojkarna 2+ goals
65%
IF Brommapojkarna 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

Karlberg (draw refunded)
13%
IF Brommapojkarna (draw refunded)
87%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karlberg at home — creates 0.60, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

IF Brommapojkarna away — creates 2.50, concedes 0.86 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karlberg attack 0.60 + IF Brommapojkarna defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.73

IF Brommapojkarna attack 2.50 + Karlberg defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Karlberg scores more
11%
level
18%
IF Brommapojkarna scores more
72%

IF Brommapojkarna at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "IF Brommapojkarna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Svenska Cupen: Karlberg 1–3 IF Brommapojkarna

IF Brommapojkarna beat Karlberg 3-1 in Svenska Cupen on August 19, 2020.

The match was played at Stadshagens IP in Stockholm.