Karlberg 5–0 Fagersta Södra IK: Result & Stats

Karlberg

FT

5 – 0

Fagersta Södra IK

6/14/2020

Division 2 - Norra Svealand · Norra Svealand - 1Stadshagens IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Karlberg86%

×Draw9%

Fagersta Södra IK5%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KarlbergExpected goals in this matchFagersta Södra IK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.81

0.89

Karlberg

3.81

Fagersta Södra IK

0.89

Karlberg creates 328% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 6 away

2.79

creates per match

0.67

1.10

allows per match

4.83

creates per match

Karlberg

2.79

Fagersta Södra IK

0.67

allows per match

Karlberg

1.10

Fagersta Södra IK

4.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Karlberg+0.00on par

Fagersta Södra IK+0.00on par

Total goals

Over83
Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karlberg ↓

Fagersta Södra IK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–13%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–09%

4–18%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (9%) · grid covers 73% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

83%17%3.5

66%34%4.5

46%54%

Double chance

Karlberg or draw

95%

Karlberg or Fagersta Södra IK

91%

Draw or Fagersta Södra IK

14%

Winning margin

Karlberg wins by 2+

71%

Fagersta Södra IK wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Karlberg 1+ goals

98%

Karlberg 2+ goals

88%

Karlberg 3+ goals

71%

Fagersta Södra IK 1+ goals

59%

Fagersta Södra IK 2+ goals

22%

Fagersta Södra IK 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Karlberg (draw refunded)

95%

Fagersta Södra IK (draw refunded)

5%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karlberg at home — creates 2.79, concedes 1.10 · 48 matches

Fagersta Södra IK away — creates 0.67, concedes 4.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karlberg attack 2.79 + Fagersta Södra IK defence 4.83 → ÷2 → 3.81

Fagersta Södra IK attack 0.67 + Karlberg defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 86%?"

Karlberg scores more

86%

level

9%

Fagersta Södra IK scores more

5%

Karlberg at 86% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 86% does not mean "Karlberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff