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Karlberg vs AFC Eskilstuna — Ettan - Norra 2019

Karlberg
Karlberg
FT
4 – 2
HT: 3 – 1
AFC Eskilstuna
AFC Eskilstuna
9/20/2025Ettan - NorraEttan - Norra · Norra - 23Stadshagens IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Karlberg45%
×Draw21%
AFC Eskilstuna34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Karlberg
2.01
AFC Eskilstuna
1.72

Karlberg creates 17% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 37 away

creates per match

Karlberg
1.65
AFC Eskilstuna
1.76

allows per match

Karlberg
1.68
AFC Eskilstuna
2.38

finishing

Karlberg+0.00on par
AFC Eskilstuna+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karlberg ↓

AFC Eskilstuna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Karlberg or draw
66%
Karlberg or AFC Eskilstuna
79%
Draw or AFC Eskilstuna
55%

Winning margin

Karlberg wins by 2+
25%
AFC Eskilstuna wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Karlberg 1+ goals
87%
Karlberg 2+ goals
59%
Karlberg 3+ goals
32%
AFC Eskilstuna 1+ goals
82%
AFC Eskilstuna 2+ goals
51%
AFC Eskilstuna 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Karlberg (draw refunded)
57%
AFC Eskilstuna (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karlberg at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.68 · 37 matches

AFC Eskilstuna away — creates 1.76, concedes 2.38 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karlberg attack 1.65 + AFC Eskilstuna defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 2.01

AFC Eskilstuna attack 1.76 + Karlberg defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Karlberg scores more
45%
level
21%
AFC Eskilstuna scores more
34%

Karlberg at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Karlberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Karlberg vs AFC Eskilstuna

Karlberg beat AFC Eskilstuna 4-2 in Ettan - Norra on September 20, 2025.

The match was played at Stadshagens IP in Vasastaden.