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Karkonosze Jelenia Góra vs Śląsk Wrocław II — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra
FT
2 – 5
HT: 1 – 1
Śląsk Wrocław II
Śląsk Wrocław II
6/8/2024III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 34Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra27%
×Draw24%
Śląsk Wrocław II50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra
1.20
Śląsk Wrocław II
1.73

Śląsk Wrocław II creates 44% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 34 away

creates per match

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra
1.46
Śląsk Wrocław II
2.12

allows per match

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra
1.34
Śląsk Wrocław II
0.94

finishing

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra+0.00on par
Śląsk Wrocław II+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra ↓

Śląsk Wrocław II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra or draw
50%
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra or Śląsk Wrocław II
76%
Draw or Śląsk Wrocław II
73%

Winning margin

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra wins by 2+
11%
Śląsk Wrocław II wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra 1+ goals
70%
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra 2+ goals
34%
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra 3+ goals
12%
Śląsk Wrocław II 1+ goals
82%
Śląsk Wrocław II 2+ goals
52%
Śląsk Wrocław II 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra (draw refunded)
35%
Śląsk Wrocław II (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.34 · 67 matches

Śląsk Wrocław II away — creates 2.12, concedes 0.94 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra attack 1.46 + Śląsk Wrocław II defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.20

Śląsk Wrocław II attack 2.12 + Karkonosze Jelenia Góra defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra scores more
27%
level
24%
Śląsk Wrocław II scores more
50%

Śląsk Wrocław II at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Śląsk Wrocław II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Karkonosze Jelenia Góra vs Śląsk Wrocław II

Śląsk Wrocław II beat Karkonosze Jelenia Góra 5-2 in III Liga - Group 3 on June 8, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Jelenia Góra.