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Karkonosze Jelenia Góra vs Raków Częstochowa II — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra
FT
1 – 2
Raków Częstochowa II
Raków Częstochowa II
3/2/2024III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 19Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra41%
×Draw24%
Raków Częstochowa II35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra
1.58
Raków Częstochowa II
1.44

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra creates 10% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 34 away

creates per match

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra
1.46
Raków Częstochowa II
1.53

allows per match

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra
1.34
Raków Częstochowa II
1.71

finishing

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra+0.00on par
Raków Częstochowa II+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra ↓

Raków Częstochowa II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra or draw
65%
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra or Raków Częstochowa II
76%
Draw or Raków Częstochowa II
59%

Winning margin

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra wins by 2+
20%
Raków Częstochowa II wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra 1+ goals
79%
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra 2+ goals
47%
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra 3+ goals
21%
Raków Częstochowa II 1+ goals
76%
Raków Częstochowa II 2+ goals
42%
Raków Częstochowa II 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra (draw refunded)
54%
Raków Częstochowa II (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.34 · 67 matches

Raków Częstochowa II away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.71 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra attack 1.46 + Raków Częstochowa II defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.58

Raków Częstochowa II attack 1.53 + Karkonosze Jelenia Góra defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra scores more
41%
level
24%
Raków Częstochowa II scores more
35%

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Karkonosze Jelenia Góra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 3: Karkonosze Jelenia Góra 1–2 Raków Częstochowa II

Raków Częstochowa II beat Karkonosze Jelenia Góra 2-1 in III Liga - Group 3 on March 2, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Jelenia Góra.