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Karkonosze Jelenia Góra vs FK Jablonec — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra
FT
1 – 6
HT: 0 – 3
FK Jablonec
FK Jablonec
1/13/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra37%
×Draw20%
FK Jablonec43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra
2.11
FK Jablonec
2.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 4 home / 9 away

creates per match

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra
2.00
FK Jablonec
2.00

allows per match

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra
2.50
FK Jablonec
2.22

finishing

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra+0.00on par
FK Jablonec+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

78%Yes
  • Yes78
  • No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra ↓

FK Jablonec →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–27%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
63%37%4.5
43%57%

Double chance

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra or draw
57%
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra or FK Jablonec
80%
Draw or FK Jablonec
63%

Winning margin

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra wins by 2+
21%
FK Jablonec wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra 1+ goals
88%
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra 2+ goals
62%
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra 3+ goals
35%
FK Jablonec 1+ goals
89%
FK Jablonec 2+ goals
65%
FK Jablonec 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra (draw refunded)
47%
FK Jablonec (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
72%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra at home — creates 2.00, concedes 2.50 · 4 matches

FK Jablonec away — creates 2.00, concedes 2.22 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra attack 2.00 + FK Jablonec defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 2.11

FK Jablonec attack 2.00 + Karkonosze Jelenia Góra defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra scores more
37%
level
20%
FK Jablonec scores more
43%

FK Jablonec at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "FK Jablonec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Karkonosze Jelenia Góra vs FK Jablonec

FK Jablonec beat Karkonosze Jelenia Góra 6-1 in Friendlies Clubs on January 13, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Jelenia Góra.