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Kariobangi Sharks vs Zoo Kericho — FKF Premier League 2018

Kariobangi Sharks
Kariobangi Sharks
CANC
11:00
Zoo Kericho
Zoo Kericho
4/7/2021FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 15Moi International Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Kariobangi Sharks51%
×Draw24%
Zoo Kericho25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kariobangi Sharks
1.66
Zoo Kericho
1.07

Kariobangi Sharks creates 55% more chances

Season form · 146 home / 52 away

creates per match

Kariobangi Sharks
1.38
Zoo Kericho
0.90

allows per match

Kariobangi Sharks
1.25
Zoo Kericho
1.94

finishing

Kariobangi Sharks+0.00on par
Zoo Kericho+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kariobangi Sharks ↓

Zoo Kericho →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Kariobangi Sharks or draw
75%
Kariobangi Sharks or Zoo Kericho
76%
Draw or Zoo Kericho
49%

Winning margin

Kariobangi Sharks wins by 2+
27%
Zoo Kericho wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Kariobangi Sharks 1+ goals
81%
Kariobangi Sharks 2+ goals
49%
Kariobangi Sharks 3+ goals
23%
Zoo Kericho 1+ goals
66%
Zoo Kericho 2+ goals
29%
Zoo Kericho 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Kariobangi Sharks (draw refunded)
68%
Zoo Kericho (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kariobangi Sharks at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.25 · 146 matches

Zoo Kericho away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.94 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kariobangi Sharks attack 1.38 + Zoo Kericho defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.66

Zoo Kericho attack 0.90 + Kariobangi Sharks defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Kariobangi Sharks scores more
51%
level
24%
Zoo Kericho scores more
25%

Kariobangi Sharks at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Kariobangi Sharks will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Kariobangi Sharks host Zoo Kericho

April 7, 2021: Kariobangi Sharks take on Zoo Kericho in FKF Premier League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Kariobangi Sharks host Zoo Kericho at Moi International Sports Centre.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.