Kariobangi Sharks 2–2 Western Stima: Result & Stats

Kariobangi Sharks

FT

2 – 2

Western Stima

P. Otieno 53'

E. Kapaito 29'

S. Abawa 87' (pen)

O. Kennedy 15'

8/30/2019

FKF Premier League · Round 1Kenyatta Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Kariobangi Sharks43%

×Draw27%

Western Stima30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kariobangi SharksExpected goals in this matchWestern Stima

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.09

Kariobangi Sharks

1.36

Western Stima

1.09

Kariobangi Sharks creates 25% more chances

Season form · 145 home / 52 away

1.39

creates per match

0.94

1.25

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Kariobangi Sharks

1.39

Western Stima

0.94

allows per match

Kariobangi Sharks

1.25

Western Stima

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kariobangi Sharks+0.00on par

Western Stima+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kariobangi Sharks ↓

Western Stima →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Kariobangi Sharks or draw

70%

Kariobangi Sharks or Western Stima

73%

Draw or Western Stima

57%

Winning margin

Kariobangi Sharks wins by 2+

20%

Western Stima wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Kariobangi Sharks 1+ goals

74%

Kariobangi Sharks 2+ goals

39%

Kariobangi Sharks 3+ goals

16%

Western Stima 1+ goals

66%

Western Stima 2+ goals

30%

Western Stima 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Kariobangi Sharks (draw refunded)

59%

Western Stima (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kariobangi Sharks at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.25 · 145 matches

Western Stima away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.33 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kariobangi Sharks attack 1.39 + Western Stima defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.36

Western Stima attack 0.94 + Kariobangi Sharks defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Kariobangi Sharks scores more

43%

level

27%

Western Stima scores more

30%

Kariobangi Sharks at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Kariobangi Sharks will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

O. Kennedy

29'

E. Kapaito

53'

P. Otieno

87'

S. AbawaPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff