Kariobangi Sharks 3–0 Nzoia Sugar: Result & Stats

Kariobangi Sharks

FT

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Nzoia Sugar

4/20/2024

FKF Premier League · Round 24Police Sacco Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 111+ matches

Kariobangi Sharks42%

×Draw27%

Nzoia Sugar32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kariobangi SharksExpected goals in this matchNzoia Sugar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.14

Kariobangi Sharks

1.35

Nzoia Sugar

1.14

Kariobangi Sharks creates 18% more chances

Season form · 146 home / 111 away

1.38

creates per match

1.02

1.25

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Kariobangi Sharks

1.38

Nzoia Sugar

1.02

allows per match

Kariobangi Sharks

1.25

Nzoia Sugar

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kariobangi Sharks+0.00on par

Nzoia Sugar+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kariobangi Sharks ↓

Nzoia Sugar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Kariobangi Sharks or draw

68%

Kariobangi Sharks or Nzoia Sugar

73%

Draw or Nzoia Sugar

58%

Winning margin

Kariobangi Sharks wins by 2+

19%

Nzoia Sugar wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Kariobangi Sharks 1+ goals

74%

Kariobangi Sharks 2+ goals

39%

Kariobangi Sharks 3+ goals

15%

Nzoia Sugar 1+ goals

68%

Nzoia Sugar 2+ goals

32%

Nzoia Sugar 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Kariobangi Sharks (draw refunded)

57%

Nzoia Sugar (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kariobangi Sharks at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.25 · 146 matches

Nzoia Sugar away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.32 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kariobangi Sharks attack 1.38 + Nzoia Sugar defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.35

Nzoia Sugar attack 1.02 + Kariobangi Sharks defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Kariobangi Sharks scores more

42%

level

27%

Nzoia Sugar scores more

32%

Kariobangi Sharks at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Kariobangi Sharks will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff