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Kariobangi Sharks vs Nairobi City Stars — FKF Premier League 2018

Kariobangi Sharks
Kariobangi Sharks
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Nairobi City Stars
Nairobi City Stars
3/2/2024FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 21Police Sacco Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Kariobangi Sharks40%
×Draw27%
Nairobi City Stars33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kariobangi Sharks
1.29
Nairobi City Stars
1.14

Kariobangi Sharks creates 13% more chances

Season form · 146 home / 84 away

creates per match

Kariobangi Sharks
1.38
Nairobi City Stars
1.02

allows per match

Kariobangi Sharks
1.25
Nairobi City Stars
1.20

finishing

Kariobangi Sharks+0.00on par
Nairobi City Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kariobangi Sharks ↓

Nairobi City Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Kariobangi Sharks or draw
67%
Kariobangi Sharks or Nairobi City Stars
73%
Draw or Nairobi City Stars
60%

Winning margin

Kariobangi Sharks wins by 2+
18%
Nairobi City Stars wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Kariobangi Sharks 1+ goals
72%
Kariobangi Sharks 2+ goals
37%
Kariobangi Sharks 3+ goals
14%
Nairobi City Stars 1+ goals
68%
Nairobi City Stars 2+ goals
32%
Nairobi City Stars 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Kariobangi Sharks (draw refunded)
55%
Nairobi City Stars (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kariobangi Sharks at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.25 · 146 matches

Nairobi City Stars away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.20 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kariobangi Sharks attack 1.38 + Nairobi City Stars defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.29

Nairobi City Stars attack 1.02 + Kariobangi Sharks defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Kariobangi Sharks scores more
40%
level
27%
Nairobi City Stars scores more
33%

Kariobangi Sharks at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Kariobangi Sharks will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kariobangi Sharks vs Nairobi City Stars

Kariobangi Sharks and Nairobi City Stars drew 0-0 in FKF Premier League on March 2, 2024.

The match was played at Police Sacco Stadium in Nairobi.