Kariobangi Sharks 1–3 Kenya Police: Result & Stats

Kariobangi Sharks

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Kenya Police

12/8/2021

FKF Premier League · Round 7Moi International Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Kariobangi Sharks34%

×Draw28%

Kenya Police38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kariobangi SharksExpected goals in this matchKenya Police

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

1.23

Kariobangi Sharks

1.14

Kenya Police

1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 146 home / 10 away

1.38

creates per match

1.20

1.25

allows per match

0.90

creates per match

Kariobangi Sharks

1.38

Kenya Police

1.20

allows per match

Kariobangi Sharks

1.25

Kenya Police

0.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kariobangi Sharks+0.00on par

Kenya Police+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kariobangi Sharks ↓

Kenya Police →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Kariobangi Sharks or draw

62%

Kariobangi Sharks or Kenya Police

72%

Draw or Kenya Police

66%

Winning margin

Kariobangi Sharks wins by 2+

14%

Kenya Police wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Kariobangi Sharks 1+ goals

68%

Kariobangi Sharks 2+ goals

32%

Kariobangi Sharks 3+ goals

11%

Kenya Police 1+ goals

71%

Kenya Police 2+ goals

35%

Kenya Police 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Kariobangi Sharks (draw refunded)

47%

Kenya Police (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kariobangi Sharks at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.25 · 146 matches

Kenya Police away — creates 1.20, concedes 0.90 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kariobangi Sharks attack 1.38 + Kenya Police defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.14

Kenya Police attack 1.20 + Kariobangi Sharks defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Kariobangi Sharks scores more

34%

level

28%

Kenya Police scores more

38%

Kenya Police at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Kenya Police will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff