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Kariobangi Sharks vs Chemelil Sugar — FKF Premier League 2018

Kariobangi Sharks
Kariobangi Sharks
CANC
00:00
Chemelil Sugar
Chemelil Sugar
4/18/2020FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 29Moi International Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Kariobangi Sharks48%
×Draw27%
Chemelil Sugar24%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kariobangi Sharks
1.40
Chemelil Sugar
0.91

Kariobangi Sharks creates 54% more chances

Season form · 145 home / 55 away

creates per match

Kariobangi Sharks
1.39
Chemelil Sugar
0.56

allows per match

Kariobangi Sharks
1.25
Chemelil Sugar
1.42

finishing

Kariobangi Sharks+0.00on par
Chemelil Sugar+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kariobangi Sharks ↓

Chemelil Sugar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Kariobangi Sharks or draw
76%
Kariobangi Sharks or Chemelil Sugar
73%
Draw or Chemelil Sugar
52%

Winning margin

Kariobangi Sharks wins by 2+
23%
Chemelil Sugar wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Kariobangi Sharks 1+ goals
75%
Kariobangi Sharks 2+ goals
41%
Kariobangi Sharks 3+ goals
17%
Chemelil Sugar 1+ goals
60%
Chemelil Sugar 2+ goals
23%
Chemelil Sugar 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Kariobangi Sharks (draw refunded)
66%
Chemelil Sugar (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kariobangi Sharks at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.25 · 145 matches

Chemelil Sugar away — creates 0.56, concedes 1.42 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kariobangi Sharks attack 1.39 + Chemelil Sugar defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.40

Chemelil Sugar attack 0.56 + Kariobangi Sharks defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Kariobangi Sharks scores more
48%
level
27%
Chemelil Sugar scores more
24%

Kariobangi Sharks at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Kariobangi Sharks will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Kariobangi Sharks host Chemelil Sugar

April 18, 2020: Kariobangi Sharks take on Chemelil Sugar in FKF Premier League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Kariobangi Sharks host Chemelil Sugar at Moi International Sports Centre.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.