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Kariba vs Simba Bhora — Premier Soccer League 2026

Kariba
Kariba
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Simba Bhora
Simba Bhora
11/18/2023Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 33Nyamhunga Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Kariba36%
×Draw34%
Simba Bhora29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kariba
0.90
Simba Bhora
0.77

Kariba creates 17% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 62 away

creates per match

Kariba
0.85
Simba Bhora
0.94

allows per match

Kariba
0.60
Simba Bhora
0.95

finishing

Kariba+0.00on par
Simba Bhora+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Under
  • Under77
  • Over23

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kariba ↓

Simba Bhora →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–019%
0–114%
0–26%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–16%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (19%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
81%19%1.5
50%50%2.5
23%77%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Kariba or draw
71%
Kariba or Simba Bhora
66%
Draw or Simba Bhora
64%

Winning margin

Kariba wins by 2+
13%
Simba Bhora wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Kariba 1+ goals
59%
Kariba 2+ goals
23%
Kariba 3+ goals
6%
Simba Bhora 1+ goals
54%
Simba Bhora 2+ goals
18%
Simba Bhora 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Kariba (draw refunded)
56%
Simba Bhora (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kariba at home — creates 0.85, concedes 0.60 · 97 matches

Simba Bhora away — creates 0.94, concedes 0.95 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kariba attack 0.85 + Simba Bhora defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.90

Simba Bhora attack 0.94 + Kariba defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Kariba scores more
36%
level
34%
Simba Bhora scores more
29%

Kariba at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Kariba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier Soccer League: Kariba 1–1 Simba Bhora

Kariba and Simba Bhora drew 1-1 in Premier Soccer League on November 18, 2023.

The match was played at Nyamhunga Stadium in Kariba.