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Kariba vs Cranborne Bullets — Premier Soccer League 2026

Kariba
Kariba
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Cranborne Bullets
Cranborne Bullets
7/29/2023Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 17Nyamhunga Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Kariba45%
×Draw32%
Cranborne Bullets22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kariba
1.08
Cranborne Bullets
0.66

Kariba creates 64% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 34 away

creates per match

Kariba
0.85
Cranborne Bullets
0.71

allows per match

Kariba
0.60
Cranborne Bullets
1.32

finishing

Kariba+0.00on par
Cranborne Bullets+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Under
  • Under75
  • Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kariba ↓

Cranborne Bullets →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–112%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–113%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
52%48%2.5
25%75%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Kariba or draw
78%
Kariba or Cranborne Bullets
68%
Draw or Cranborne Bullets
55%

Winning margin

Kariba wins by 2+
19%
Cranborne Bullets wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Kariba 1+ goals
66%
Kariba 2+ goals
29%
Kariba 3+ goals
10%
Cranborne Bullets 1+ goals
48%
Cranborne Bullets 2+ goals
14%
Cranborne Bullets 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Kariba (draw refunded)
67%
Cranborne Bullets (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kariba at home — creates 0.85, concedes 0.60 · 97 matches

Cranborne Bullets away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.32 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kariba attack 0.85 + Cranborne Bullets defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.08

Cranborne Bullets attack 0.71 + Kariba defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Kariba scores more
45%
level
32%
Cranborne Bullets scores more
22%

Kariba at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Kariba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kariba vs Cranborne Bullets

Kariba beat Cranborne Bullets 1-0 in Premier Soccer League on July 29, 2023.

The match was played at Nyamhunga Stadium in Kariba.