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Kariba vs Black Rhinos — Premier Soccer League 2026

Kariba
Kariba
FT
3 – 1
Black Rhinos
Black Rhinos
5/15/2023Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 9National Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Kariba41%
×Draw35%
Black Rhinos24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kariba
0.94
Black Rhinos
0.64

Kariba creates 47% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 51 away

creates per match

Kariba
0.85
Black Rhinos
0.67

allows per match

Kariba
0.60
Black Rhinos
1.02

finishing

Kariba+0.00on par
Black Rhinos+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Under
  • Under79
  • Over21

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

71%No
  • No71
  • Yes29

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kariba ↓

Black Rhinos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–021%
0–113%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–16%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (21%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
79%21%1.5
47%53%2.5
21%79%3.5
8%92%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Kariba or draw
76%
Kariba or Black Rhinos
65%
Draw or Black Rhinos
59%

Winning margin

Kariba wins by 2+
15%
Black Rhinos wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Kariba 1+ goals
61%
Kariba 2+ goals
24%
Kariba 3+ goals
7%
Black Rhinos 1+ goals
47%
Black Rhinos 2+ goals
14%
Black Rhinos 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Kariba (draw refunded)
63%
Black Rhinos (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
16%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kariba at home — creates 0.85, concedes 0.60 · 97 matches

Black Rhinos away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.02 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kariba attack 0.85 + Black Rhinos defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.94

Black Rhinos attack 0.67 + Kariba defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Kariba scores more
41%
level
35%
Black Rhinos scores more
24%

Kariba at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Kariba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kariba vs Black Rhinos

Kariba beat Black Rhinos 3-1 in Premier Soccer League on May 15, 2023.

The match was played at National Sports Stadium in Harare.